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"In-Line, Details Not Worrying Scenario" Evident In Details

US DATA

Looks like this is the "in-line, details not worrying" core CPI scenario that we described earlier - looks like this report will not worry the Fed enough to consider a hike tomorrow:

  • Core % M/M was definitely on the high side of expectations (0.436% M/M unrounded vs 0.4% expected median and 0.36% average) BUT this comes alongside solid rent (note above) and a 2nd consecutive 4+% handle in used car and truck (+4.42%) prices, both of which the FOMC could look through as it targets ex-shelter services inflation.
  • Overall core services were +0.40% M/M, up from 0.36% in April (ex-OER/rent as noted earlier was a soft +0.24% M/M), with core goods steady at 0.55% vs 0.57% in April.

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