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AUSSIE BONDS: In their 2019 global outlook TD securities recommended selling AU
10-Year bonds to buy U.S. 10-Year Tsys. They look to enter at -45bp, with a
target at -25bp, and a stop at -50bp.
- TD wrote that "our forecast for US 10-Year yields to peak in Q2 2019 means
that the AU/U.S. 10-Year spread does not begin to widen until Q3 2019. However,
offshore investors may begin to view Australia/NZ as less of a hedge and if U.S.
10-Year yields don't rise much more from here, then the spread could begin to
widen earlier. The carry of selling 10-Year AU against the U.S. is -0.3bps over
3 months. An alternative would be to pay AU 5y5y against US, which has a roll
down of -1bps/3mths."