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Increase In Participation Limits Unemployment Rate Reversal

SWEDEN
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The Swedish seasonally adjusted April unemployment rate fell back a tenth to 8.5%, after March’s surprising spike to 8.6%. The four analysts surveyed by Bloomberg had projected a deeper pullback to 8.4%.

  • The monthly LFS data is volatile, but the 3-month average unemployment rate rose a tenth to 8.4% in April. The Riksbank forecasted a Q2 average unemployment rate of 8.31% in its March MPR.
  • The participation rate rose to 75.8% (vs 75.6% in March and 75.2% in February), helping to limit the fall in the unemployment rate.
  • The employment rate rose to 69.3% (vs 69.1% prior), above the Riksbank’s March MPR forecast of 68.8% in Q2. However, employment growth on a SA 3m/3m basis was flat.
  • Taken alongside the Public Employment Service data earlier this month, the Swedish labour market continues to show signs of gradually loosening, though pockets of resilience can still be seen from an employment perspective.
  • Our recently published Sweden Macro Signal explores the outlook for the Swedish economy over the next few years. See here.

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The Swedish seasonally adjusted April unemployment rate fell back a tenth to 8.5%, after March’s surprising spike to 8.6%. The four analysts surveyed by Bloomberg had projected a deeper pullback to 8.4%.

  • The monthly LFS data is volatile, but the 3-month average unemployment rate rose a tenth to 8.4% in April. The Riksbank forecasted a Q2 average unemployment rate of 8.31% in its March MPR.
  • The participation rate rose to 75.8% (vs 75.6% in March and 75.2% in February), helping to limit the fall in the unemployment rate.
  • The employment rate rose to 69.3% (vs 69.1% prior), above the Riksbank’s March MPR forecast of 68.8% in Q2. However, employment growth on a SA 3m/3m basis was flat.
  • Taken alongside the Public Employment Service data earlier this month, the Swedish labour market continues to show signs of gradually loosening, though pockets of resilience can still be seen from an employment perspective.
  • Our recently published Sweden Macro Signal explores the outlook for the Swedish economy over the next few years. See here.