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INDIA: Bond Market Seeing First Foreign Outflows. 

INDIA
  • Since being included in JPMorgan’s index in the mid part of this year India has enjoyed strong re-balancing inflows into their bond market from foreign investors.
  • However with USD strength presenting challenges for the Rupee, November is likely to see the first outflow since June.
  • Global investors via the Fully Accessible Route (“FAR”) are on track to have withdrawn INR77bn (US$900m) from data as of 28th.
  • Globally, investors have retreated to USD assets, with many major markets outside of the US experiencing outflows for stocks and bonds.
  • The has been driven by political uncertainty from the incoming new administration and the Federal Reserve now likely to be cutting rates at a much slower pace than first thought.
  • This has seen the INR under pressure and the RBI forced to use their FX reserves to defend it. a theme this is likely to continue into year end.
  • Despite the outflows India’s 10-year government bond is on track to finish lower in yield in the period since index inclusion. 
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  • Since being included in JPMorgan’s index in the mid part of this year India has enjoyed strong re-balancing inflows into their bond market from foreign investors.
  • However with USD strength presenting challenges for the Rupee, November is likely to see the first outflow since June.
  • Global investors via the Fully Accessible Route (“FAR”) are on track to have withdrawn INR77bn (US$900m) from data as of 28th.
  • Globally, investors have retreated to USD assets, with many major markets outside of the US experiencing outflows for stocks and bonds.
  • The has been driven by political uncertainty from the incoming new administration and the Federal Reserve now likely to be cutting rates at a much slower pace than first thought.
  • This has seen the INR under pressure and the RBI forced to use their FX reserves to defend it. a theme this is likely to continue into year end.
  • Despite the outflows India’s 10-year government bond is on track to finish lower in yield in the period since index inclusion.