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INDIA: CPI Print Puts RBI on Hold.

INDIA
IndiaGlobalEM BulletBulletAPACEmerging Market NewsRegion
  • India’s October CPI rose more than expected.
  • Consumer prices rose +6.21% YoY, an increase from last month’s release of 5.49% YoY.
  • Given the late seasonal rains in Southern regions, it was forecast that a material increase in food prices would be evident.
  • Food prices rose +9.7% YOY driven by vegetable prices and edible oils.
  • Economists had predicted that the CPI print would be +5.90%, remaining below the RBI’s upper band of 6%.
  • The RBI has been criticized of late for maintaining its GDP forecast of +7.2%.
  • With CPI now above their upper limit, and a bullish growth outlook, the December 06 final meeting of the year is likely to see the Central Bank on hold.
  • The market pricing indicates limited expectations for rate cuts for the next meeting and for 2025, has priced in almost 90% of two cuts in the base rate.  
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  • India’s October CPI rose more than expected.
  • Consumer prices rose +6.21% YoY, an increase from last month’s release of 5.49% YoY.
  • Given the late seasonal rains in Southern regions, it was forecast that a material increase in food prices would be evident.
  • Food prices rose +9.7% YOY driven by vegetable prices and edible oils.
  • Economists had predicted that the CPI print would be +5.90%, remaining below the RBI’s upper band of 6%.
  • The RBI has been criticized of late for maintaining its GDP forecast of +7.2%.
  • With CPI now above their upper limit, and a bullish growth outlook, the December 06 final meeting of the year is likely to see the Central Bank on hold.
  • The market pricing indicates limited expectations for rate cuts for the next meeting and for 2025, has priced in almost 90% of two cuts in the base rate.