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Free AccessIndon Sov Debt Curve Bull-Steepens, BI In No Rush To Cut Rates
Indonesian USD sovereign debt curve has followed UST yields lower, although the front-end has continued to lag the move. INDON yields are 1-4bps lower. The FOMC meeting overnight has been the main driver for rates, while The Bank Indonesia held their interest rates on hold at 6.00% in what was widely expected with focus largely on FX stability after the IDR has fallen 2% against the USD so far this year. JPM expects the BI to cut twice this year, however this will be largely reliant on when the US cuts.
- The INDON sov curve has bull steepened post the FOMC overnight with front-end yields 2-4bps lower while the mid to longer end is 1-2.5bps lower, the 2Y yield is 4bp lower at 4.945%, 5Y yield is 4bps lower at 4.93%, the 10Y yield is 2.5bps lower at 5.025%, while the 5-year CDS moved almost 6bps higher on Wednesday but has reversed some of those moves to trade down 2bps from highs at 71.5bps
- The INDON to UST spread difference drifted wider on Wednesday, continuing the weekly theme, with the front-end underperforming moves in UST The 2yr is 35.5bps (+6bp), 5yr is 70bps (+1.5bps), while the 10yr is 76.5bps (-0.5bps).
- In cross-asset moves, the USD/IDR is 0.35% lower, the JCI is 0.60% higher, Palm Oil is pushing higher, up 0.33%, while US Tsys yields are 1-3bps lower.
- Foreign Investors sold bonds again on Tuesday now marking 9 of 10 day of net selling by foreign investors. The 5-day average is now -$63m, the 20-day average is -$53m while the longer term 200-day average is now just $0.03m
- Elsewhere, in what was widely expected Prabowo's Indonesian Election win has been question in court by rival. While Indonesian's economy will probably grow 4.7%-5.5% this year, while inflations outlook is 1.5%-3.5% for the year according to the BI.
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Why MNI
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of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.