November 20, 2024 22:14 GMT
INDONESIA: BI Holds, Sees Less Room to Ease Further.
INDONESIA
- Bank Indonesia (“BI”) kept rates on hold yesterday at 6.00% overnight.
- BI Governor Warjiyo indicated in his press conference that given the Bank’s focus on maintaining currency stability, the prospects of further cuts has now narrowed.
- Governor Warjiyo spoke to the strength of the domestic economy being overshadowed by ‘rapid development in global dynamics' and that the BI’s focus for their monetary policy is aimed at ‘strengthening the stability of the rupiah from global geopolitical and economic uncertainties.’
- Governor Warjiyo forecast that the US monetary policy easing cycle will be limited and the likelihood for trade tariffs and an expansive fiscal policy as factors that will support USD assets in 2025.
- Having closed Tuesday at 15,830 IDR pushed as high as 15,870 during the press conference only to close at 15,865.
- Market observers (including MNI – Market News) were skewed towards no change in policy with 27 of 35 economists surveyed by BBG forecasting no change.
- Indonesia’s monetary policy is well supported by their International Reserves of US$151bn, the highest they have been.
- Indonesia’s 2-year government bond (the most sensitive to interest rate expectations) sold off 4bps yesterday to finish at 6.597% whilst the 10-year (the most sensitive to long term growth prospects) moved 1bp higher to 6.901%.
- BI issued a press release yesterday providing their forecasts for the full year 2024 with GDP growth to be in a region of 4.7%-5.5% , inflation 1.5%-3.5% and the current account deficit with a range of 0.1%-0.9% of GDP.
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