MNI China Daily Summary: Thursday, July 25

MNI BRIEF: Japan Govt Keeps Econ View, Cuts Exports

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MNI: PBOC Sets Yuan Parity Lower At 7.1321 Thurs; -1.92% Y/Y

CHINA PBOC CONDUCTS CNY235.1 BILLION VIA 7-DAY REVERSE REPOS THURS

CHINA SETS YUAN CENTRAL PARITY AT 7.1321 THURS VS 7.1358

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MNI: UK JUL CBI INDUSTRIAL TRENDS TOTAL ORDERS -32

Broad-Based IFO Weakness Reinforces Narrative of Recovery Stall

RPT-MNI: Canada Sticks To Fiscal Anchors, Spends Chunk Of Windfall

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Industrial Activity Likely Underestimated By IP Data (2/2)

GERMAN DATA
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IP is an important indicator of currrent business cycle activity. Looking at the chart below, however, it is evident that industrial GVA was growing at a faster pace pre-crisis (particularly 2015-2017). And then post-crisis, there has been a much less pronounced fall in activity, particuarly over the last year.

  • Destatis initially estimate GVA using monthly IP trends. This is because the data underlying final GVA calculations is received significantly later than the one for GDP by expenditure.
  • This lowers the predictive power of recent GVA prints as they can get heavily revised, the Ministry of Finance notes.
  • Taking the data at face value, also for industrial GVA, the overall trend seemingly remains to the downside, however.



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IP is an important indicator of currrent business cycle activity. Looking at the chart below, however, it is evident that industrial GVA was growing at a faster pace pre-crisis (particularly 2015-2017). And then post-crisis, there has been a much less pronounced fall in activity, particuarly over the last year.

  • Destatis initially estimate GVA using monthly IP trends. This is because the data underlying final GVA calculations is received significantly later than the one for GDP by expenditure.
  • This lowers the predictive power of recent GVA prints as they can get heavily revised, the Ministry of Finance notes.
  • Taking the data at face value, also for industrial GVA, the overall trend seemingly remains to the downside, however.