GERMAN DATA
IP is an important indicator of currrent business cycle activity. Looking at the chart below, however, it is evident that industrial GVA was growing at a faster pace pre-crisis (particularly 2015-2017). And then post-crisis, there has been a much less pronounced fall in activity, particuarly over the last year.
- Destatis initially estimate GVA using monthly IP trends. This is because the data underlying final GVA calculations is received significantly later than the one for GDP by expenditure.
- This lowers the predictive power of recent GVA prints as they can get heavily revised, the Ministry of Finance notes.
- Taking the data at face value, also for industrial GVA, the overall trend seemingly remains to the downside, however.
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