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Industrial Output Decelerates To 0.4% YoY In December

CZECHIA
  • CNB decided to proceed with a 75bps hike in last week’s meeting (as expected), levitating the policy rate to 4.5%.
  • The CNB has now entered into the last phase of the tightening cycle, with the terminal rate expected to reach 5% (at most) in Q1/early Q2 before gradually declining from H2 2022 as inflationary pressures start to ease.
  • This morning, economic data showed industrial output decelerated to 0.4% YoY in December (vs. 3.8%), down from 4.5% the previous month.
  • Foreign Deficit came in larger than expected at 15bn CZK in December (vs. 7.8bn), down from a revised 4.4bn CZK surplus.
  • We previously saw that the aggressive tightening cycle run by the CNB to combat inflation has been pricing in a deceleration in the economic activity in the medium term.
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