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Industrial Production Ahead of Expectations

TURKEY
  • Turkey saw another strong expansion in industrial production in the June data, increasing by +1.3% m/m and +8.5% y/y, beating forecasts by 1.3pp m/m and 1.8pp y/y. The sub-sectors saw a strong 10.0% y/y increase in manufacturing, which accounts for the bulk of the headline print, whilst mining and quarrying recorded a -7.1% y/y contraction.
  • Turkish IP has continued to expand since July 2020, despite raced with the challenges of factory-gate inflation soaring to +144.6% y/y in July and the lira experiencing a stark depreciation since the end of 2021.
  • This morning’s CBRT survey showed inflation expectations rising across July, with 12-month expectations up to 42.99% from 40.23% previously. Year-end USD/TRY forecasts also rose, sitting at 19.65 from 18.99 prior.
  • Gross reserves data released late yesterday showed foreign reserves rising to close to $109bln, with payments from Russia for the Akkuyu nuclear plant likely behind the swelling reserves.
  • Andalu report that after Sweden and Finland agreed to cooperate on Turkey’s terrorism fighting aims, the three countries are set to convene on August 26th for the first meeting of the newly proposed joint mechanism between the three countries, according to the Turkish foreign minister.
  • Later today, President Erdogan is due to speak, scheduled in Istanbul at 3pm local time (1300BST/0800ET).
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