November 25, 2022 16:06 GMT
Industrial production has held up quite strongly in the past 12 months considering multiple headwinds including waning demand, soaring energy costs, supply chain disruptions, and renewed Covid lockdowns.
- MNI estimates global industrial production came in at between 3-4% Y/Y in October, a sharp pullback from 4.8% in September which was a 13-month high. (The latter matches exactly with the IP estimate by the Netherlands' CPB but they have not yet estimated October - see chart).
- However, production has been buoyed by China's strong start to the year and more recently, global catch-up in filling backlogs as supply chain constraints have eased.
- Neither of these will be repeated into early 2023, and forward looking indicators including PMIs and confidence surveys point to a dip in the global IP aggregate back towards 0% Y/Y - another piece in the global recession puzzle.
% Y/YSource: MNI Calculations, CPB
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