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Industrial Production Looks Set To Moderate Going Forward

GLOBAL

Industrial production has held up quite strongly in the past 12 months considering multiple headwinds including waning demand, soaring energy costs, supply chain disruptions, and renewed Covid lockdowns.

  • MNI estimates global industrial production came in at between 3-4% Y/Y in October, a sharp pullback from 4.8% in September which was a 13-month high. (The latter matches exactly with the IP estimate by the Netherlands' CPB but they have not yet estimated October - see chart).
  • However, production has been buoyed by China's strong start to the year and more recently, global catch-up in filling backlogs as supply chain constraints have eased.
  • Neither of these will be repeated into early 2023, and forward looking indicators including PMIs and confidence surveys point to a dip in the global IP aggregate back towards 0% Y/Y - another piece in the global recession puzzle.


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Industrial production has held up quite strongly in the past 12 months considering multiple headwinds including waning demand, soaring energy costs, supply chain disruptions, and renewed Covid lockdowns.

  • MNI estimates global industrial production came in at between 3-4% Y/Y in October, a sharp pullback from 4.8% in September which was a 13-month high. (The latter matches exactly with the IP estimate by the Netherlands' CPB but they have not yet estimated October - see chart).
  • However, production has been buoyed by China's strong start to the year and more recently, global catch-up in filling backlogs as supply chain constraints have eased.
  • Neither of these will be repeated into early 2023, and forward looking indicators including PMIs and confidence surveys point to a dip in the global IP aggregate back towards 0% Y/Y - another piece in the global recession puzzle.


Keep reading...Show less