EUROZONE DATA
Eurozone December industrial production is due for release Thursday, with our tracking estimate pointing to a reading between -1.1% and -1.2% M/M, significantly below the Bloomberg consensus of -0.6% which was estimated ahead of the release of Italian IP. We estimate IP excluding Ireland fell around 1.9% M/M. We also estimate an upward revision to the November reading from 0.2% M/M to between 0.4-0.5%.
- Of the seven countries with the largest weight in Eurozone IP, five saw IP fall M/M with only Ireland and Spain seeing production increase sequentially.
- German IP declined 2.9% M/M, after increasing 1.5% in November. This is the lowest reading since July 2024, contributing around -1.0ppts to the Eurozone wide industrial production reading.
- Italian IP fell a significant 3.1% M/M (vs a rise of 0.3% in Nov) - the biggest fall in 2024. We estimate this contributes -0.5ppts to Eurozone IP.
- Belgian IP dropped 6.8% M/M contributing an estimated -0.3ppts to Eurozone IP. The reading reverses some of November's 9.2% increase, and is the lowest monthly reading since June 2024.
- France and the Netherlands are both estimated to contribute -0.05ppts to the Eurozone IP reading.
- Ireland once again skewed the value, recording a firm reading of 8.2% M/M, more than recovering November's fall of 4.6%. This is the highest sequential reading since November 2023. We estimate this contributes a positive 0.7ppts to EZ IP in December.
- Spanish IP also moderated the downward move, with an estimated contribution of +0.1ppts.
- Note, Eurostat uses industrial production numbers excluding construction, so the above country numbers may not reflect what was published as headline IP data from the national statistics agencies.
263 words