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Industrial Production Stalls as Demand Weakens

GERMAN DATA
MNI (London)

GERMANY OCT INDUSTRIAL PROD. -0.1% M/M (FCST -0.6%); SEP +1.1%r M/M

GERMANY OCT INDUSTRIAL PROD. 0.0% Y/Y (FCST -0.7%); SEP +3.1%r Y/Y

  • Following stronger-than-anticipated October factory orders, German industrial production saw softer contractions than expected. In October, German IP recorded a marginal -0.1% m/m contraction and stalled at 0.0% compared to October 2021.
  • This is substantially weaker than the upwardly-revised September data.
  • Only capital goods production expanded (+1.4% m/m), whilst declines were recorded for both consumer goods (-1.9% m/m) and intermediate goods (-1.8% m/m) as weak economic outlooks drag on production.
  • Supply-chain easing is providing support to production, however, the energy-intensive sector remains severely hampered by high energy prices, with production down 12.6% y/y.
  • Survey data continues to signal that the German economy teeters on the edge of a recession. Eurozone IP data is due next Wednesday and will likely signal contraction (when removing data volatility such as Irish IP).

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