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Inflation Back Towards Top End Of Target Band But Not As Strong As Feared

PHILIPPINES

Philippines April inflation was not as strong as forecast. The print coming in at 3.8% y/y, versus 4.1% projected but versus 3.7% prior.

  • M/M inflation fell 0.1% against a +0.2% forecast and 0.1% rise prior. Food prices fell 0.2% m/m (after a 0.3% fall last month). The downward shift came from housing and utilities, which fell 0.5% m/m (versus flat in March).
  • Working the other way transport prices rose 0.6 (versus 0.2% prior). Most other sub-indices saw similar or slightly lower m/m outcomes versus March.
  • In y/y terms it was a similar backdrop. Food prices rose to 6.0%, while transport rose to 2.6% (from 2.1%). Other sub indices were mostly lower or the same as the March outcome in y/y terms.
  • Core CPI moved down to 3.2% y/y, from 3.4% prior. We are back to Q2 2022 levels from a core momentum standpoint.
  • Official comments after the print noted on-going food inflation concerns, particularly in terms of rice prices (up 23.9% y/y).
  • The BSP stated inflation risks still rest to the upside and that inflation may be above target (2-4%) in the next 2 quarters. Still, average 2024 and 2025 inflation are expected to within the target range. The next BSP meeting is on May 16 (before then we also get Q1 GDP on May 9).
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