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Free AccessInflation Breakevens Continue Recent Retracement
- After much focus on surging real yields through Sept, it’s been easy to miss the subsequent rise in inflation breakevens as real yields have stalled, most recently with real yields -10/-7bps vs breakevens +5bps for 5Y/10Y on the day.
- WTI bouncing off Sept lows helped firm short-term breakevens but longer-term measures have also increased with the 10Y at 2.45% off Sep 30 lows of 2.10% having more than closed the gap to pre-Sep FOMC levels.
- This should still be seen as relatively anchored, at levels from before the Ukraine war and notably below in the case of the 5Y breakeven, but it has come despite nominal yields recently exceeding 4.5% for the 2Y and 4% for the 10Y.
US breakevens: 10Y (white), 5Y (yellow) and 2Y (purple). WTI 1st fut (red)Source: Bloomberg
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.