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Inflation Breakevens Continue Recent Slide As Real Yields Surge

US
  • Large increases in real yields keep downward pressure on inflation breakevens, with the 2Y of 2.47% (-8bps) and 10Y of 2.31% (-4.5bps).
  • Gov. Waller recently noted a focus on inflation expectations a couple of years out and this continued decline, with the 2Y down 50bp since Nov FOMC, will provide some optimism as he becomes “more comfortable” with a stepdown to a 50bp hike in Dec.
  • Short-term breakevens are helped by further declines in oil prices (WTI -4% today) but equally, the 10Y is back at levels from prior to the surprisingly strong September CPI print.

2Y (white) and 10Y (yellow) breakevens - chart shows last yields vs ask in textSource: Bloomberg

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