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Inflation Breakevens Crank Higher Again

US
  • Breakevens have again moved higher today, led by the longer end of the curve in a continuation of the move after yesterday’s strong 30Y TIPS auction as longer end inflation risk is re-considered.
  • The 30Y has been of note, rising another 6bps for 13bps in two days to 2.38% and the highest since late June.
  • Looking at 10s for a more typical idea of long-run market expectations, they’re up 5bps to 2.57% and further outside a narrow two week range of 2.4-2.5%, off July lows of 2.3% although still just about at pre-Ukraine war levels.
  • Breakevens are only part of the story behind nominal yields though, with 10Y real yields +4bps today to +40bps and weighing on risk sentiment.

US 10Y breakeven (yellow) and real yields (green)Source: Bloomberg

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