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Free AccessInflation Breakevens Crank Higher Again
- Breakevens have again moved higher today, led by the longer end of the curve in a continuation of the move after yesterday’s strong 30Y TIPS auction as longer end inflation risk is re-considered.
- The 30Y has been of note, rising another 6bps for 13bps in two days to 2.38% and the highest since late June.
- Looking at 10s for a more typical idea of long-run market expectations, they’re up 5bps to 2.57% and further outside a narrow two week range of 2.4-2.5%, off July lows of 2.3% although still just about at pre-Ukraine war levels.
- Breakevens are only part of the story behind nominal yields though, with 10Y real yields +4bps today to +40bps and weighing on risk sentiment.
US 10Y breakeven (yellow) and real yields (green)Source: Bloomberg
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.