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Inflation Contained But Weak Rupiah Adding To Imported Price Risks

INDONESIA

Indonesia’s May CPI rose a slightly less than expected 2.8% y/y after 3.0%. The drop on the month was driven by food and transport prices. Whereas core inflation rose 1.9% y/y up from 1.8%, highest since September 2023, due to higher rents and gold/jewellery and sugar prices. Inflation remains well within Bank Indonesia’s (BI) 1.5-3.5% target band but the central bank remains alert to the impact of the weaker currency on import prices.

Indonesia CPI y/y%

Source: MNI - Market News/Refinitiv
  • Volatile food prices moderated to 8.1% y/y from 10.3% in April due to lower rice and chicken inflation. Administered prices remained low rising only 1.5% y/y up from 1.4%.
  • Import prices were disinflationary from November 2022 until February this year but in March they turned positive rising 0.5% y/y. In the May S&P Global manufacturing PMI respondents reported that cost pressures were higher due to the soft rupiah.
  • USDIDR has risen again since mid-May and the pair is up 1.6% since then. It has started this week slightly lower at 16223. With the pair stubbornly elevated BI will continue to monitor inflationary risks closely.
Indonesia import prices y/y% vs JP Morgan NEER

Source: MNI - Market News/Refinitiv

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