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Inflation data due at 7:00BST

UK DATA
  • Inflation data will be due for release at 7:00BST.
  • This week’s inflation data will be key. We will either see last month’s broad-based increases confirmed or we will get a bit of a softer print.
  • The MPC will have already seen the print on Monday morning and the direction of the surprise to May inflation could well influence whether there are any changes to guidance.
  • Furthermore, although our base case sees a 2-7-0 vote at tomorrow's MPC meeting (unch-25-50), we think that If May inflation surprises to the upside materially, there could be up to three dissenters in favour of 50bp (in order of likelihood Mann, Haskel and Ramsden).
  • As of yesterday's close markets were pricing in 29bp for tomorrow's meeting with a peak of 138bp cumulatively priced by February 2024.
  • Although we think markets are pricing too much through the meetings later this year, we still think that markets could see a decent reaction to either a high or a low print today.
  • Note that we also published our BOE Preview yesterday and it is available here.
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