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Inflation data due at 7:00BST / 8:00CET

SWEDEN
  • Swedish inflation data is also due at 7:00BST / 8:00CET. Consensus looks for CPIF to increase from 6.4%Y/Y to 7.0%Y/Y with CPIF ex energy increasing from 4.5%Y/Y to 5.2%Y/Y.
  • Markets are pretty much fully pricing a 50bp hike for June and an inflation print in line with consensus would be above the Riksbank's forecast. So any upside surprise is likely to reinforce the market view that the Riksbank's "alternative" path is looking more likely than its standard path. And it's alternative path sees a 100% probability of a 50bp June hike with rates at 2% by this time next year.

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