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Inflation data due at 8:30BST: Upside more significant for SEK (2/2)

SWEDEN
  • Nordea looks for an above-consensus 1.7%Y/Y CPIF print (but CPIF ex energy in line with consensus at 0.5%Y/Y). "The main driver on the upside and the reason for the upward revision of forecasts is energy prices, boosting the CPIF by some 0.3% point on the month in July. Energy prices dropped last year, explaining the uptick in the year-on-year CPIF figure."
  • The Riksbank remains dovish and continues to forecast a zero probability of a rate hike through its forecast horizon to Q3-24. FRAs don't fully price a hike until around the turn of the year in 2024.
  • A higher than consensus print today (particularly on the core reading) could push this forward to the end of 2023, and hence see EURSEK move lower. Support is first at yesterday's low of 10.1673 ahead of the 29 July low of 10.1574 and the 200-dma at 10.1501.
  • However, a lower than expected print is unlikely to move markets too much as it will have little impact on policy.
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