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AUSTRALIA DATA: Inflation Expectations Lowest Since 2021

AUSTRALIA DATA
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The Melbourne Institute’s consumer inflation expectations rose sharply by 0.6pp to 4.6% in February but more than reversed that in March with a 1pp decline to 3.6%. This was the lowest reading since Covid-impacted August 2021 and is now down around 3pp from June 2022’s peak. 

  • With Westpac citing inflation as still the main news item recalled by respondents in its consumer confidence survey, cost-of-living issues remain a problem. Lower inflation combined with higher nominal disposable incomes should help support consumption going forward.
  • The near-term downward revision in the RBA’s expectations for underlying inflation and its increased confidence that it is returning sustainably to the band likely helped to drive inflation expectations lower in March.
  • Petrol prices are down this month to date and may have also helped to reduce inflation expectations.
  • February CPI data is released on March 26. 

Australia underlying inflation %

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The Melbourne Institute’s consumer inflation expectations rose sharply by 0.6pp to 4.6% in February but more than reversed that in March with a 1pp decline to 3.6%. This was the lowest reading since Covid-impacted August 2021 and is now down around 3pp from June 2022’s peak. 

  • With Westpac citing inflation as still the main news item recalled by respondents in its consumer confidence survey, cost-of-living issues remain a problem. Lower inflation combined with higher nominal disposable incomes should help support consumption going forward.
  • The near-term downward revision in the RBA’s expectations for underlying inflation and its increased confidence that it is returning sustainably to the band likely helped to drive inflation expectations lower in March.
  • Petrol prices are down this month to date and may have also helped to reduce inflation expectations.
  • February CPI data is released on March 26. 

Australia underlying inflation %

Keep reading...Show less