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Inflation Persistence Keeps 10Y Real Rates Low In Turkey, China and CEE

EMERGING MARKETS
  • The rise in energy prices is likely to keep inflationary pressures elevated longer than previously expected in most of the EM countries (especially CEEMEA/Latam).
  • Following the large increase in inflation earlier this month, with CPI surging to 36.1% in December (vs. 27.4% exp.), Turkey now offers the lowest 10Y real yield among the EM world (-12.6%).
  • China offers the second lowest 10Y real yield of -10.1% when adjusted by PPI inflation. Interestingly, markets does not seem to be ‘convinced’ by the recent easing measures by officials and uncertainty keeps pushing LT bond yields to new lows.
  • CEE region still stands at the bottom of the League with inflation in some countries approaching 10%. Poland is currently offering the lowest 10Y real yield among the region (-4.6%).
  • At the top, Indonesia is now the country that offers the highest 10Y real yield , with a 10Y real yield of 4.6%, shortly followed by South Africa ( 4.5%).

Source: Bloomberg/MNI

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