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Inflation Weighs On Consumer Spending, MPC's Kotecki Says NBP Should Have Tightened Earlier

POLAND
  • Private sector wages reported by the statistics office Tuesday rose 13.0% Y/Y last month, lagging the rate of consumer inflation of 17.9% Y/Y, with DGP noting this morning that the contraction in real wages is comparable with declines from the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic. Shrinking disposable income is affecting consumer behaviour, with Rzeczpospolita citing a large-scale study by Proxi.cloud/UCE Research which points to significant outflows of customers from major fast food chains. Against this backdrop, Poland will report retail sales for the month of October this morning. Retail sales growth is expected to have slowed to +21.0% Y/Y from +21.9% recorded in September.
  • NBP's Kotecki told Oko.press that domestic factors are responsible for "40-50%" of inflation, blaming delayed decision to tighten monetary conditions and proinflationary fiscal policy. He warned that Poland may already be facing stagflation in 4Q2022.
  • Poland's Deputy Finance Minister Sobon struck conciliatory tones re: talks with Brussels on post-COVID-19 recovery funds. He told TVN24 that there is space for both sides to make concessions and called on Eurosceptic junior coalition partner to soften their stance
  • A survey for DGP/RMF FM showed that less Poles are worried about a potential Russian attack, despite the recent missile blast incident. Concerns about the ongoing war will play a role in shaping the public debate ahead of the 2023 election.
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