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ING Expect EUR/HUF to Operate Within 368-378 Range

HUNGARY
  • ING expect EUR/HUF to oscillate in the current range of 368–378 depending on the NBH’s communication regarding the rate-cutting cycle and on progress on the EU funds issue. Until this issue is resolved, they see the 368 level providing strong support to EUR/HUF. HUF also has the potential to weaken if there is stronger-than-expected disinflation.
  • If market stability remains intact, ING expect the NBH to stick to gradualism and for the effective rate to merge with the 13% base rate at the September meeting. In their view, the incremental change in the wording of the forward guidance and the fact that the NBH sees inflation risk tilted to the downside might signal that the first cut in the base rate could come shortly after this. The renewed hawkishness of central banks around the world poses upside risk to the base rate cut playbook.
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