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CEE FX: ING Expect PLN to Remain Supported, Stay Negative on CZK

CEE FX
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  • ING say CEE FX has been in the same mode since the beginning of the year, notably following the direction of the rates market.
  • They note that the NBP’s press conference brought an extra dose of hawkishness, which they think will shift the EUR/PLN trading range from 4.26-28 to 4.25-27. The interest rate differential widened on Friday and ING say we are likely to see more today, which will keep PLN supported.
  • On the other hand, ING remain negative on the CZK given their expectations of a CNB rate cut in February, which should push EUR/CZK up towards 25.40. EUR/HUF is trying to stabilise after high volatility at the turn of the year and ING see levels around 412 for now.
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  • ING say CEE FX has been in the same mode since the beginning of the year, notably following the direction of the rates market.
  • They note that the NBP’s press conference brought an extra dose of hawkishness, which they think will shift the EUR/PLN trading range from 4.26-28 to 4.25-27. The interest rate differential widened on Friday and ING say we are likely to see more today, which will keep PLN supported.
  • On the other hand, ING remain negative on the CZK given their expectations of a CNB rate cut in February, which should push EUR/CZK up towards 25.40. EUR/HUF is trying to stabilise after high volatility at the turn of the year and ING see levels around 412 for now.