MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Euro Stocks Bull Cycle Intact
Price Signal Summary – Euro Stocks Bull Cycle Intact
- S&P E-Minis traded higher again, Friday. Last week’s gains undermine the recent bearish theme. The contract has traded through the 50-day EMA and attention is on resistance at 6107.50, the Dec 26 high. A bull cycle in the Eurostoxx 50 futures contract remains intact. Last week’s climb resulted in a breach of 5054.00, the Jan 8 high, to confirm a resumption of the uptrend. The contract is holding on to its gains. The focus is on a climb towards 5200.00.
- The trend direction in GBPUSD remains down and short-term gains are considered corrective. Recent weakness has confirmed a resumption of the downtrend and marks an extension of the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. The trend condition in USDJPY is unchanged, it remains bullish and last week’s move lower appears corrective - for now. The pair has traded through the 20-day EMA and an extension lower would signal scope for a deeper retracement. A bearish trend condition in AUDUSD remains intact and the latest shallow recovery appears corrective. The pair has recently breached 0.6179, the Dec 31 low, maintaining the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs.
- The recent climb in Gold appears corrective - for now. However, the yellow metal continues to hold on to its latest gains and scope is seen for a continuation higher near-term. The stronger recovery exposes $2726.2, the Dec 12 high and an important resistance. The trend structure in WTI futures remains bullish and the Jan 15 rally reinforces current conditions. The recent strong impulsive climb has resulted in a breach of $75.91, the Oct 8 high. Attention is on $79.48, the Apr 12 ‘24 high.
- The medium-term trend in Bund futures is unchanged, it remains bearish. However, the Jan 15 rally highlights a short-term reversal signal - a bullish engulfing candle. It suggests scope for a continued corrective phase that would allow an oversold trend condition to unwind. The trend condition in Gilt futures is unchanged, the direction remains down. However, strong gains last week highlight the start of a corrective phase and if correct, signals scope for a continuation higher near-term.
FOREIGN EXCHANGE
EURUSD TECHS: Trend Signals Remain Bearish
- RES 4: 1.0630 High Dec 06
- RES 3: 1.0463 50-day EMA
- RES 2: 1.0437 High Jan 6
- RES 1: 1.0338/54 20-day EMA / High Jan 15
- PRICE: 1.0282 @ 19:12 GMT Jan 17
- SUP 1: 1.0178 Low Jan 13 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 1.0138 1.764 proj of the Sep 25 - Oct 23 - Nov 5 price swing
- SUP 3: 1.0122 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- SUP 4: 1.0031 2.000 proj of the Sep 25 - Oct 23 - Nov 5 price swing
The trend condition in EURUSD is unchanged, it remains bearish and last week’s recovery appears corrective. Recent weakness resulted in a print below 1.0226, the Jan 2 low. The breach confirms a resumption of the downtrend and maintains the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Sights are on 1.0138 next, a Fibonacci projection. Resistance to watch is 1.0437, the Jan 6 high. Initial resistance is at 1.0338, the 20-day EMA.
GBPUSD TECHS: Bearish Outlook Remains Intact
- RES 4: 1.2607 High Dec 30
- RES 3: 1.2554 50-day EMA
- RES 2: 1.2376 20-day EMA
- RES 1: 1.2306 High Jan 06
- PRICE: 1.2209 @ 06:23 GMT Jan 20
- SUP 1: 1.2100 Low Jan 10 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 1.2087 0.764 proj of the Sep 26 - Nov 22 - Dec 6 price swing
- SUP 3: 1.2037 Low Oct 4 ‘23 and a key support
- SUP 4: 1.2000 Psychological round number
The trend direction in GBPUSD remains down and short-term gains are considered corrective. Recent weakness has confirmed a resumption of the downtrend and marks an extension of the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Note too that moving average studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. Sights are on 1.2087 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm resistance is at 1.2398, the 20-day EMA.
EURGBP TECHS: Trend Needle Points North
- RES 4: 0.8530 76.4% retracement of the Aug 8 - Dec 19 downleg
- RES 3: 0.8494 High Aug 26 ‘24
- RES 2: 0.8471 61.8% retracement of the Aug 8 - Dec 19 downleg
- RES 1: 0.8463 High Jan 15
- PRICE: 0.8441 @ 06:45 GMT Jan 18
- SUP 1: 0.8385 Low Jan 14
- SUP 2: 0.8336/8284 50-day EMA / Low Jan 8
- SUP 3: 0.8263 Low Dec 31
- SUP 4: 0.8223 Low Dec 19
EURGBP maintains a firmer tone and the cross continues to trade closer to its recent highs. The latest recovery undermines the recent bearish theme and suggests scope for stronger short-term gains. 0.8376, the Nov 19 high and a key resistance, has been cleared. Note too that 0.8448, the Oct 31 high, has been pierced, a clear break of this hurdle would strengthen the bullish theme. Support at the 50-day EMA is at 0.8336.
USDJPY TECHS: Support At The 50-Day EMA Remains Intact
- RES 4: 159.45 High Jul 12
- RES 3: 159.26 0.618 proj of the Sep 16 - Nov 15 - Dec 3 price swing
- RES 2: 158.08/87 High Jan 15 / 10 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: 156.66 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 156.15 @ 06:56 GMT Jan 20
- SUP 1: 154.97 50-day EMA
- SUP 2: 154.44 Low Dec 19
- SUP 3: 154.16Trendline support drawn from the Sep 16 ‘24 low
- SUP 4: 153.16 Low Dec 17
The trend condition in USDJPY is unchanged, it remains bullish and last week’s move lower appears corrective - for now. The pair has traded through the 20-day EMA and an extension lower would signal scope for a deeper retracement. Support to watch is 154.97, the 50-day EMA. A return higher and a breach of 158.87, the Jan 10 high, would confirm a resumption of the uptrend and open 159.45, the Jul 12 ‘24 high.
EURJPY TECHS: Pierces Support
- RES 4: 165.43 High Nov 8
- RES 3: 164.90 High Dec 30 and a key short-term resistance
- RES 2: 164.55 High Jan 7
- RES 1: 162.08/89 50-day EMA / High Jan 15
- PRICE: 161.10 @ 7:06 GMT Jan 20
- SUP 1: 159.73 Low Jan 17
- SUP 2: 159.51 61.8% retracement of the Dec 3 - 30 bull cycle
- SUP 3: 158.67 Low Dec 11
- SUP 4: 158.24 76.4% retracement of the Dec 3 - 30 bull cycle
EURJPY traded lower last Thursday marking an extension of the current bear cycle. The cross has pierced support at 160.04, the Jan 13 low. A clear break of this level would strengthen a bearish threat and signal scope for a deeper retracement. The next price point to watch is 159.51, a Fibonacci retracement. The cross has recovered from its recent lows, a move above 162.89, the Jan 15 high, would reinstate the recent bullish theme.
AUDUSD TECHS: Southbound
- RES 4: 0.6429 High Dec 12
- RES 3: 0.6384 High Dec 13
- RES 2: 0.6302/35 High Jan 6 / 50-day EMA
- RES 1: 0.6229/47 20-day EMA / High Jan 15
- PRICE: 0.6220 @ 07:53 GMT Jan 20
- SUP 1: 0.6131 Low Jan 13
- SUP 3: 0.6100 Round number support
- SUP 3: 0.6045 1.500 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing
- SUP 4: 0.5994 1.618proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing
A bearish trend condition in AUDUSD remains intact and the latest shallow recovery appears corrective. The pair has recently breached 0.6179, the Dec 31 low, maintaining the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Note that moving average studies are in a bear-mode position too. Scope is seen for an extension towards the 0.6100 handle next. Initial firm resistance is 0.6229, 20-day EMA (pierced). The 50-day EMA is at 0.6335.
USDCAD TECHS: Bulls Remain In The Driver’s Seat
- RES 4: 1.4671 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 3: 1.4539 3.382 proj of the Oct 17 - Nov 1 - 6 price swing
- RES 2: 1.4508 3.236 proj of the Oct 17 - Nov 1 - 6 price swing
- RES 1: 1.4486 Intraday high
- PRICE: 1.4449 @ 08:04 GMT Jan 20
- SUP 1: 1.4364/4302 20-day EMA / Low Jan 15
- SUP 2: 1.4280 Low Jan 6
- SUP 3: 1.4226 50-day EMA
- SUP 4: 1.4011 Low Dec 5
The trend in USDCAD remains bullish and recent short-term weakness has proved to be corrective. The latest pause in the uptrend appears to be a flag formation - a bullish continuation signal. Note too that MA studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Friday’s gains expose 1.4508 next, a Fibonacci projection level. 1.4364, the 20-day EMA, has been pierced. A clear break of it would open 1.4226, the 50-day EMA.
FIXED INCOME
BUND TECHS: (H5) Engulfing Pattern Still In Play
- RES 4: 137.75 Low Dec 10
- RES 3: 135.15 High Dec 13
- RES 2: 132.55 20-day EMA
- RES 1: 132.47 High Jan 17
- PRICE: 131.74 @ 05:48 GMT Jan 20
- SUP 1: 131.00/130.28 Low Jan 16 / Low Jan 15 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2 130.44 Low Jul 5 ‘24 (cont)
- SUP 3: 130.23 Low Jul 3 ‘24 (cont)
- SUP 4: 130.00 Psychological round number
The medium-term trend in Bund futures is unchanged, it remains bearish. However, the Jan 15 rally highlights a short-term reversal signal - a bullish engulfing candle. It suggests scope for a continued corrective phase that would allow an oversold trend condition to unwind. A continuation higher would open 132.47, the 20-day EMA. The bear trigger has been defined at 130.28, the Jan 15 low, a break would resume the downtrend.
BOBL TECHS: (H5) Corrective Cycle Extends
- RES 4: 118.640 Low Dec 6
- RES 3: 118.520 High Dec 13
- RES 2: 117.329 20-day EMA
- RES 1: 117-100 High Jan 17
- PRICE: 116.960 @ 06:03 GMT Jan 20
- SUP 1: 116.50/280 Low Jan 16 / Low Jan 14 / 15 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 116.210 Low Jul 12 2024 (cont)
- SUP 3: 115.980 Low Jul 11 ‘24 (cont)
- SUP 4: 115.745 1.50 proj of the Oct 1 - 31 - Dec 2 ‘24 price swing
A bear cycle in Bobl futures remains intact, however, the Jan 15 rally highlights a possible short-term reversal and the start of a corrective cycle. An extension higher is allowing an oversold trend condition to unwind. Key short-term resistance is seen at 117.329, the 20-day EMA. On the downside, a break of 116.280, the Jan 14 / 15 low, would confirm a resumption of the bear cycle.
SCHATZ TECHS: (H5) Short-Term Correction
- RES 4: 107.065 High Jan 2
- RES 3: 106.965 High Jan 3
- RES 2: 106.781 20-day EMA
- RES 1: 106.680 High Jan 17
- PRICE: 106.645 @ 06:16 GMT Jan 20
- SUP 1: 106.545/435 Low Jan 16 / 15 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 106.375 Low Oct 31 (cont) and a key support
- SUP 3: 106.342 2.764 proj of the Dec 2 - 6 - 12 price swing
- SUP 4: 106.255 3.000 proj of the Dec 2 - 6 - 12 price swing
The current bear cycle in Schatz futures remains intact and recent weakness, including fresh cycle lows last week, reinforce this theme. However, from a short-term perspective, the JAn 15 recovery suggests scope for a short-term bull cycle - a correction. This opens 106.781, the 20-day EMA. On the downside, 106.435, the Jan 15 low has been defined as the bear trigger. A break of this level would confirm a resumption of the bear trend.
GILT TECHS: (H5) Is Through The 20-Day EMA
- RES 4: 93.09 High Dec 20
- RES 3: 92.75 50.0% retracement of the Dec 3 - Jan 13 bear leg
- RES 2: 92.27 High Jan 6
- RES 1: 91.96 High Jan 17
- PRICE: 91.67 @ Close Jan 17
- SUP 1: 90.68 Low Jan 16
- SUP 2: 89.68/88.96 Low Jan 15 / 13 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: 88.87 2.764 proj of the Dec 20 -27 - Jan 2 price swing
- SUP 4: 88.53 3.000 proj of the Dec 20 -27 - Jan 2 price swing
The trend condition in Gilt futures is unchanged, the direction remains down. However, strong gains last week highlight the start of a corrective phase and if correct, signals scope for a continuation higher near-term. Attention is resistance at the 20-day EMA, at 91.55. This average has been breached, a clear break would suggest scope for a stronger retracement. On the downside, the bear trigger has been defined at 88.96, the Jan 13 low.
BTP TECHS: (H5) Testing Resistance At The 20-Day EMA
- RES 4: 122.85 High Dec 11
- RES 3: 120.98 61.8% retracement of the Dec 11 - Jan 13 bear leg
- RES 2: 120.45 High Jan 2
- RES 1: 119.33/35 20-day EMA / High Jan 17
- PRICE: 119.07 @ Close Jan 17
- SUP 1: 117.16 Low Jan 13 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 116.59 76.4% retrace of the Jun - Dec ‘24 bull cycle (cont)
- SUP 3: 116.07 Low Jul 8 ‘24 (cont)
- SUP 4: 115.45 Low Jul 3 ‘24 (cont)
The current bear cycle in BTP futures remains in play and last week’s fresh cycle low reinforces current conditions. However, from a short-term perspective, the latest rally highlights a corrective phase. Resistance to watch is 119.33, the 20-day EMA. A clear break of this level would signal scope for a stronger retracement. The bear trigger has been defined at 117.16, the Jan 13 low.
EQUITIES
EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (H5) Holding On To Its Gains
- RES 4: 5261.57 1.382 proj of the Nov 21 - Dec 9 - 20 price swing
- RES 3: 5215.87 1.236 proj of the Nov 21 - Dec 9 - 20 price swing
- RES 2: 5200.00 Round number resistance
- RES 1: 5175.00 High Jan 17
- PRICE: 5163.00 @ 06:35 GMT Jan 20
- SUP 1: 5113.00/5040.00 Low Jan 17 / High Dec 9
- SUP 2: 5002.94/4931.00 20-day EMA / Low Jan 13
- SUP 3: 4829.00 Low Dec 20 and key short-term support
- SUP 4: 4775.00 Low Nov 29
A bull cycle in the Eurostoxx 50 futures contract remains intact. Last week’s climb resulted in a breach of 5054.00, the Jan 8 high, to confirm a resumption of the uptrend. The contract is holding on to its gains. The focus is on a climb towards 5200.00, a round number resistance point. Key short-term support has been defined at 4931.00, the Jan 13 low. A break of this level would be bearish.
E-MINI S&P: (H5) Is Through The 50-Day EMA
- RES 4: 6178.75 High Dec 6 and key resistance
- RES 3: 6163.75 High Dec 16
- RES 2: 6068.25/6107.50 High Jan 6 / High Dec 26
- RES 1: 6051.50 High Jan 17
- PRICE: 6034.75 @ 07:27 GMT Jan 20
- SUP 1: 5961.75 Low Jan 16
- SUP 2: 5879.50/5809.00 Low Jan 15 / 13
- SUP 3: 5784.00 Low Nov 4
- SUP 4: 5698.25 50.0% retracement of the Aug 5 - Dec 6 bull leg
S&P E-Minis traded higher again, Friday. Last week’s gains undermine the recent bearish theme. The contract has traded through the 50-day EMA and attention is on resistance at 6107.50, the Dec 26 high. Initial resistance is at 6068.25, the Jan 6 high. Clearance of 6107.50 would strengthen a bullish theme. Key support has been defined at 5809.00, the Jan 13 low. A reversal lower and a breach of this level would reinstate a bear theme.
COMMODITIES
BRENT TECHS: (H5) Impulsive Bull Phase
- RES 4: $85.85 - 1.382 proj of the Sep 10 - Oct 7 - 29 price swing
- RES 3: $84.63 - High Apr 12 ‘24 and a key M/T resistance
- RES 2: $83.79 - High Jul 5 and a key resistance
- RES 1: $82.63 - High Jan 15
- PRICE: $80.70 @ 07:06 GMT Jan 20
- SUP 1: $79.62 - Low Jan 15
- SUP 2: $77.44 - 20-day EMA
- SUP 3: $71.59 - Low Dec 20
- SUP 4: $70.52 - Low Dec 6
Brent futures remain in an uptrend and the contract traded higher last week. The latest recovery confirms a continuation of the bull cycle and an acceleration of it. Key resistance at $79.50, the Oct 7 high, has been breached. Clearance of this level strengthens the bullish theme and opens $83.79, the Jul 5 high. Key short-term support is seen at $77.44, the 20-day EMA. A pullback would allow an overbought condition to unwind.
WTI TECHS: (H5) Bull Cycle In Play
- RES 4: $83.40 - 76.4% retrace of the Jul 5 - Sep 10 bear leg (cont)
- RES 3: $81.26 - 3.382 proj of the Nov 18 - 22 - Dec 6 price swing
- RES 2: $80.63 - 3.236 proj of the Nov 18 - 22 - Dec 6 price swing
- RES 1: $79.48 - High Apr 12 ‘24 and a key resistance
- PRICE: $77.27 @ 07:20 GMT Jan 20
- SUP 1: $76.16 - Low Jan 15
- SUP 2: $73.89 - 20-day EMA
- SUP 3: $71.59 - 50-day EMA
- SUP 4: $68.05 - Low Dec 20
The trend structure in WTI futures remains bullish and the Jan 15 rally reinforces current conditions. The recent strong impulsive climb has resulted in a breach of $75.91, the Oct 8 high. Attention is on $79.48, the Apr 12 ‘24 high. A clear break of this hurdle would strengthen the bullish theme. Sights are on 80.63, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, a reversal lower would expose the 20-day EMA, at $73.89, a key short-term support.
GOLD TECHS: Monitoring Resistance
- RES 4: $2762.3 - High Nov 1
- RES 3: $2730.4 - 76.4% retracement of the Oct 31 - Nov 14 bear leg
- RES 2: $2726.2 - High Dec 12 and a key short-term resistance
- RES 1: $2724.8 - High Jan 16
- PRICE: $2706.3 @ 07:21 GMT Jan 20
- SUP 1: $2651.2 - 50-day EMA
- SUP 2: $2596.2/2583.6 - Low Dec 30 / 19
- SUP 3: $2564.4 - Low Nov 18
- SUP 4: $2536.9 - Low Nov 14 and a key support
The recent climb in Gold appears corrective - for now. However, the yellow metal continues to hold on to its latest gains and scope is seen for a continuation higher near-term. The stronger recovery exposes $2726.2, the Dec 12 high and an important resistance. Clearance of this level would be a bullish development. On the downside, a reversal lower would expose $2583.6, the Dec 19 low. Initial support is at $2649.0, the 50-day EMA.
SILVER TECHS: Scope For Gains Near-Term
- RES 4: $34.903 - High Oct 23 and the bull trigger
- RES 3: $33.125 - High Nov 1
- RES 2: $32.338 - High Dec 12 and a key resistance
- RES 1: $30.974 - HIgh Jan 16
- PRICE: $30.402 @ 08:07 GMT Jan 20
- SUP 1: $29.509/28.748 - Low Jan 13 / Low Dec 19 and bear trigger
- SUP 2: $28.446 - 76.4% retracement of the Aug 8 - Oct 23 bull cycle
- SUP 3: $27.686 - Low Sep 6
- SUP 4: $26.451 - Low Aug 8
A bear cycle in Silver that started Oct 23 remains in play - for now - and recent gains appear corrective. However, the metal traded higher last week suggesting scope for a continuation near-term. An extension would expose key resistance at $32.338, the Dec 12 high. Clearance of this level would signal a reversal. On the downside, support to watch is $29.509, the Jan 13 low, and $29.748, the Dec 19 low and the bear trigger.