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ING Say Possible Hawkish Rate Repricing Could Support HUF

HUF
  • ING say that on a global level, a lower EUR/USD remains a downside risk to EUR/HUF in the short-term, but that in the medium- and long-term this should in turn help to keep EUR/HUF lower.
  • Locally, they think the NBH will be key. They say markets remain on the dovish side, so see a possible hawkish repricing, leaving room for further appreciation due to higher interest rate differentials.
  • They say positioning seems rather balanced, and that the market does not seem to be betting on further HUF weakness, while FX carry remains nearly double that of CEE peers. The recent glimmer of hope for an approaching EU deal will also provide support, they say.

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