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ING Warns RUB Offshore/Onshore Market Bifurcation May Persist

RUSSIA
  • The introduction of sanctions against many Russian banks has seen bifurcation emerge in the rouble FX spot market, where the rouble yesterday was briefly trading 10-15% weaker in the offshore than the onshore market. ING expect this two-tier market to continue and European currencies to remain under pressure
  • The counter-party limitations and risks posed by aggressive sanctions against Russian institutions have seen the emergence of a two-tier rouble market.
  • Onshore names will trade with onshore names and offshore with offshore. Last night the onshore USD/RUB rate closed around 101 at a time that the offshore rate was being quoted at 115.
  • It is hard to see that gap being closed anytime soon, although there is a chance that the offshore USD/RUB is dragged a little lower as Russian exporters are forced to sell their accumulated FX earnings over coming days - these flows may go through the onshore market as ING understand it.
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market NewsHomepage
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market NewsHomepage

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