INR Outperforms Higher USD/Asia Levels Elsewhere

USD/Asia pairs have risen for the most part today, but are away from session highs. Some improvement in the regional equity space aided by higher US futures has helped. USD indices are down though, so the likes of CNH and KRW have underperformed this soft dollar backdrop (albeit at the margins). Tomorrow, the data calendar remains light, with South Korean retail/department store sales due. Thai customs trade figures for Feb may also print.

• USD/CNH got to a high of 6.8840/45, before moderating in later trade. We are now back at just under 6.800. This is still around 0.20% weaker versus NY closing levels last week, but we remain within recent ranges for the pair. Industrial profits data was disappointing, which along with earnings headwinds and on-going housing concerns, weighed on China equities. At this stage the CSI 300 is off close to 1%.
• 1 month USD/KRW got dragged higher, but found selling interest above 1300. The pair last tracks near 1297. Local equity markets are down, but only modestly at -0.3%. Offshore investors have sold -$268.2mn of local equities so far today.
• USD/INR is ~0.2% softer on Monday, printing at 82.30/40. INR is the standout performer in USD/Asia on Monday. Barclays expect the current account gap to be 1.9% of GDP in FY24 and Citi slashed its forecast to 1.4% from 2.2% previously. USD/INR has opened below its 20-Day EMA (82.44). From a technical perspective if bears close below the 20-Day EMA they can target the 200-Day EMA (80.95). Bulls look to test the 83 handle.
• At the other end of the spectrum, baht has underperformed. The USD/THB pair last around 34.30/35, +0.55% above closing levels from the end of last week. The 20 and 50-day EMAs sit slightly higher, in the 34.35/34.40 region. On the data front, Feb customs trade figures are due between now and the end of the month. Tourism arrivals were slightly down in Feb (2.11mln) versus Jan (2.14mln). Most focus will rest on Wednesday's BoT outcome though. The consensus looks for a +25bps hike, but a few forecasters expect no change.
• The SGD NEER (per Goldman Sachs estimates) continues to tick away from cycle highs printed last week, we are a touch softer this morning. We sit ~0.7% below the upper end of the band. USD/SGD is ~0.1% firmer on Monday, last printing at $1.3330/40. The pair is following the broader USD/Asia trend thus far.