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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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- Cash Treasuries have morphed into a belly-led cheapening from the earlier bear steepening, with the front end sell-off continuing to build with 2s now 9bps cheaper and the slide in 10s trimmed to 10bps cheaper.
- The intraday flattening sees the increase in 2s10s limited to -38bps (+1bp on the day) having touched -32bps ahead of 1000ET data which included a softer NAHB housing index to partly dent the strength seen in retail sales.
- The latest front-end sell-off, with 2Y yields briefly touching 5.199% for fresh highs since 2006 before dipping 1bp, has come as Fed 2024 cut expectations have been trimmed to 70bps (from the Jan terminal of 5.47% effective to end-2024). That’s vs yesterday’s 76.5bps and is now below the 71bp seen after the close following the hawkish FOMC dot plot on Sep 20.
- Barkin ('24 voter) has provided the sole relevant Fedspeak for today (can be patient as inflation moderates, anecdotal evidence in Richmond weakening more than data suggests) but Kashkari ('23) still follows late on at 1700ET.
Swings in 2s10s continueSource: Bloomberg
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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