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Intraday Recovery Faces Stiff Resistance

EUR
  • EUR/USD's intraday recovery off 1.1396 puts the pair back above the 1.14 handle, but still well short of overnight highs at 1.1449 which remain the next upside level. Progress through here has been harder to come by, with the pair facing congestion resistance close to the year's highs of 1.1484.
  • 1.1493 marks more consequential resistance - the 50% retracement for the 2020-2021 rally, with 1.1495 also an important level, the March 2020 high.
  • The options expiry schedule could be prompting some weight in the pair, with the largest expiry of the day rolling off in EUR/USD at 1.1380-00 ($1.8bln).
  • Options markets more broadly continue to endorse recent strength in the single currency, with front-end risk reversals rallying sharply after last week's ECB press conference. The 1m contract touched +0.28 points on Friday - the highest level since May last year.
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