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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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Free AccessIntrum Curve Sells-Off Further On S&P Downgrade From BB To BB-[S]
New Profile: B2[N]/BB-[S]/BB-[S] (Moody’s downgraded on 29 Jan as flagged)
- Cerberus sale will lower gross debt but weaken leverage by reducing EBITDA generation
- S&P’s Gross Debt to Cash-adj EBITDA leverage seen above 5x in 2024 before decreasing gradually in 2025
- Equivalent ICR seen below 3x for next twelve months, recovering when leverage begins to improve.
- Recovery rating on senior notes remains at 4, indicating an expected average recovery of 30%-50% in case of default.
- The stable outlook reflects expectations that Intrum will continue implementing its revised strategy and stabilize its financial profile post-transaction.
- Refinancing risks for 2024 expected to decrease following the portfolio sale, but maturity concentrations in 2025 remain a concern.
- Intrum's liquidity is deemed adequate, with sources expected to exceed uses by 2.5x in 2024 and 1.6x in 2025.
- The Intrum EUR curve is notably cheaper today with their longest bond (2028s) EUR 7.29 cheaper at EUR 69.04 (over EUR 22.5 cheaper YTD).
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.