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Inventories Weigh On Q3 GDP, Investments & Consumption Remain Solid

POLAND

Final Q3 GDP growth was revised a tad higher to +0.5% Y/Y from the flash reading of +0.4%. The economy grew 0.5% Q/Q rather than 0.4% indicated by preliminary data.

  • ING comment that we see the beginning of a recovery in economic activity, albeit in 2024 it will still be rather anaemic.
  • mBank point to a significant negative contribution of inventories, which was countered by firmer exports. Consumption and investments remained strong.
  • The Polish Economic Institute see investments as the key engine of growth, with household consumption edging higher and inventories weighing on overall growth. They expect GDP growth to accelerate to +1.0% Y/Y in 4Q2023 and to +2.0% Y/Y in 2024 as lower inflation will boost households' real incomes.
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