Ioannis Sokos and Anne Karina Asbjorn at.......>

EGBS: Ioannis Sokos and Anne Karina Asbjorn at Nomura look at which EGB

investors might step in when the ECB steps back.

- They start by pointing out that "Non-resident investors and domestic banks

have been the main sellers of EGBs throughout this period, although our findings

vary across countries".

- Nomura shows that the sellers have varied across country. For instance, Italy

will need to attract foreign buyers and needs to "eliminate tail risks

(political uncertainty, NPLs) and improve its credit ratings. Its relatively low

net supply means that, as long as current bondholders are keen to re-invest

their holdings, the need for new buyers will remain in check".

- Instead, Spanish debt has attracted non-residents even though PSPP and so when

PSPP is tapered, it's debt will be more susceptible to political risks. 

- Nomura expects France to "depend on non-residents' appetite for French debt

while its high net supply could weigh on OATs in the absence of PSPP buying"