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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
US
A commanding victory in the first-in-the-nation Iowa caucuses has cemented former President Donald Trump's frontrunner status for the Republican 2024 presidential nomination. Trump won 51.0% of caucus-goer's votes, compared to 21.2% for Florida Governor Ron DeSantis - a surprise second place performance - and 19.1% for former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley. Tech entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy came in a distant fourth place with 7.7% of the vote. Following this result he withdraw from the race and offered his endorsement to Trump.
- Attention now turns to the 23 Jan primary in New Hampshire, a state with a very different Republican voter profile compared to Iowa (more moderates, fewer evangelicals). Given the state's more moderate profile, a strong result for Haley is seen as critical for her staying in the race as a viable candidate.
- The Iowa second place gives the DeSantis campaign some succor. After some poor polling in the run-up to Iowa there had been speculation about DeSantis' continued ability to run. This result will likely keep his campaign running for the short term at least.
- Political betting markets make Trump a runaway favourite, with a record-high 86.4% implied probability of taking the nomination, compared to 8.7% for Haley and 2.3% for DeSantis according to data compiled by electionbettingodds.com.
Chart 1. Implied Probability of Winning Republican Presidential Nomination, %
Source: electionbettingodds.com, Betfair, Smarkets, PredictIt, Polymarket, MNI
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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