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Free AccessIP Dragged Down By Ireland, But Broader Weakness Evident
Eurozone industrial production declined more than expected in January at -3.2% M/M (vs -1.5% consensus, 1.6% prior revised from 2.6%). The annual reading was also weak, at -6.7% Y/Y (vs -3.0% consensus, 0.2% prior revised from 1.2%).
- However, the January fall was strongly driven by Ireland, which saw production decrease 29.0% M/M - once again making it difficult to read a signal from the aggregate figures.
- The broader picture beyond the (now-typical statistical) Irish distortion is that the level of euro area industrial production hit a fresh post-2020 low in seasonally-adjusted terms in January, with negative momentum persisting for most of the past 2 years.
- Looking at the largest members of the Eurozone, results were mixed: Belgium (-2.0% M/M), France (-0.1% M/M) and the Netherlands (-4.0% M/M) all saw production decline M/M. Germany and Spain saw modest rises (0.6% / 0.9%, respectively), while Italian data was not published.
- From a sectoral perspective, 3 of 5 sub-components fell. Specifically, the M/M decline was driven by a fall in capital goods of 14.5% (vs +11.3% M/M prior), followed by durable consumer goods (-1.2%) and non- durable goods (-0.3%).
- Meanwhile, intermediate goods printed their first increase since September at +2.6% M/M.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.