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BRAZIL: IPCA-15 Inflation Expected To Rise Above 5% In H1 February

BRAZIL
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  • IPCA-15 inflation data for the first half of February will be released at 1200GMT(0700ET), with analysts expecting the headline rate to rise back above 5% y/y to a near two-year high, following the end of one-off electricity bill subsidies in January. In m/m terms, prices are seen rising by 1.36%, following a 0.11% gain before.
    • Feb. IBGE Inflation IPCA-15 YoY, est. 5.10%, prior 4.50%
    • Feb. IBGE Inflation IPCA-15 MoM, est. 1.36%, prior 0.11%
  • JP Morgan sees core inflation rising by 0.5% m/m, which they say would mean that the last three months core CPI would have climbed to the highest level since the end of 2022. Meanwhile, BBVA says that inflation could remain above the central bank’s target for some time, keeping the pressure on the BCB to deliver another 100bp rate increase next month and potentially add yet more in Q2 2024.
  • In other news, a provisional measure was published yesterday announcing the opening of the BRL 4.18bn extraordinary credit for the government’s crop plan. Last week, Finance Minister Haddad said that the government will ensure payment of its crop financing programme through extraordinary credits until the 2025 budget is approved.
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  • IPCA-15 inflation data for the first half of February will be released at 1200GMT(0700ET), with analysts expecting the headline rate to rise back above 5% y/y to a near two-year high, following the end of one-off electricity bill subsidies in January. In m/m terms, prices are seen rising by 1.36%, following a 0.11% gain before.
    • Feb. IBGE Inflation IPCA-15 YoY, est. 5.10%, prior 4.50%
    • Feb. IBGE Inflation IPCA-15 MoM, est. 1.36%, prior 0.11%
  • JP Morgan sees core inflation rising by 0.5% m/m, which they say would mean that the last three months core CPI would have climbed to the highest level since the end of 2022. Meanwhile, BBVA says that inflation could remain above the central bank’s target for some time, keeping the pressure on the BCB to deliver another 100bp rate increase next month and potentially add yet more in Q2 2024.
  • In other news, a provisional measure was published yesterday announcing the opening of the BRL 4.18bn extraordinary credit for the government’s crop plan. Last week, Finance Minister Haddad said that the government will ensure payment of its crop financing programme through extraordinary credits until the 2025 budget is approved.