Iran Oil Exports Jump in August Amid Sanction Evasion

Iran’s crude and condensate exports rose to 1.92mbpd in the first 27 days of August, with crude accounting for 1.77mbpd, TankerTrackers data showed, as a result of Iran’s success in evading US sanction, greater discounts of oil shipments and Washington's discretion in enforcing them as the two countries seek better relations.

• Another tanker-tracking firm that declined to be named said August crude exports were above 1.5mbpd. Kpler put August crude exports to average 1.2mbpd, compared with a high of 1.54mbpd reached in May 2018. There are no official figures for Iranian exports.
• SVB International puts crude and condensate exports at just under 2mbpd in August. The firm estimates Iran’s oil production has risen to the highest level since 2018 in August at 3.15mbpd.
• Iran has said it expects higher supply in the near term. Iran's oil minister was quoted by state media as saying crude output will reach 3.4mbpd by the end of September and currently produces 3.3mbpd.
• The United States is in talks with Iran over a potential agreement in which five U.S. citizens would be released by Iran and $6 billion in Iranian funds in South Korea would be unfrozen. White House National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan has declined to offer a timeline on a deal.
• "It seems to be happening," Kevin Book, an analyst at ClearView Energy Partners, said about what he calls enforcement discretion of US sanctions.
• Iran has also heavily discounted its oil shipments to China, something that has helped encourage buyers to step up purchases, Ben Cahill, an analyst at the Center for Strategic and International Studies think tank, said. "It's no surprise - if you discount your oil that boosts demand for it. I also think it's just hard to stop this trade," he said.