Iran Response Eyed After Funerals Of 7 IRGC Killed In Embassy Strike

The funerals of seven Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) officers killed in a strike on the Iranian consulate in Damascus, Syria, have taken place in Tehran. Iran has laid the blame for the strike at Israel's feet, with the Israeli gov't neither confirming nor denying its involvement. The Iranian gov't promised a harsh retaliation that has raised the prospect of a major escalation in regional tensions.

• As MNI noted previously (see 'Israel Bracing For Iranian Retaliation To Embassy Drone Strike', 4 Apr 1531BST), the Israeli gov't has been seen to take precautionary measures involving the cancelling of military leave and scrambling GPS signals over Tel Aviv.
• The exact nature of the response could vary significantly. The most likely perpetrators would be Iran's proxies in the region, such as Hezbollah in Lebanon or Shia militias in Syria. These groups are well armed and could launch sizeable rocket and missile barrages into Israel.
• These groups could also break the recent 'peaceful' period in which there have not been attacks on US bases in the region. The White House has restated its full support for Israel with regard to defending itself against Iran. US NSC Comms Coordinator John Kirby said to CNN "...the security assistance we provide Israel is not just for Gaza...we will continue to help you defend yourself against these multiple threats,"
• The most escalatory action would be an Iranian attack on Israel itself. In this low probability-high impact scenario the chances of direct Iranian-Israeli conflagration would rise significantly.