IRELAND: Taoiseach Confirms Election For 29 Nov As FG-FF Seek 4th Term

Taoiseach (PM) Simon Harris has confirmed that he would seek the dissolution of the Dáil (parliament) today, setting the stage for a general election 29 November. President Michael D. Higgins is set to approve the dissolution as a matter of protocol. The current parliamentary term did not expire until March 2025, but the main opposition Irish republican populist-left Sinn Fein (SF) has recorded a notable slump in popularity amid scandal according to opinion polling. 

• As such, Harris - who took over from former Taoiseach Leo Varadkar in April - has sought to take advantage of the situation and win a fourth consecutive term in office for the governing coalition of his centre-right Fine Gael (FG), centrist Fianna Fáil (FF) and environmentalist Green Party.
• Historically, FG and FF have sat in opposition to one another, but given the rise of SF and support for independents, the two moderate parties have worked together since 2020.
• The likelihood of any of the three largest parties winning enough seats to govern with only the support of a smaller party, such as the centre-left Labour or Social Democratic parties is slim. This will likely require a similar coalition agreement between FF and FG that sees the head of gov't position alternate between the party leaders. 

Chart 1. General Election Opinion Polling, % and 6-Poll Moving Average