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Is the NBP board slowly pivoting?

POLAND
  • First, we saw that NBP member Eugeniusz Gatnar has been constantly talking about the rise in inflation risks in Poland, and aiming for a symbolic hike next meeting (July 8) to reassure market that NBP is ready to react in case inflation pressures continue to rise in the coming months.
  • This early afternoon, MPC member Kamil Zubelewicz commented in an interview that it would make sense to raise rates to 1.5%, without specifying anything any timeframe.
  • FRA 6Mx9M trading 36bps above the Wibor, market pricing in 1 to 2 hikes by the end of this year.
  • Is the NBP board pivoting towards gradual tightening?
  • The majority still aims to keep interest rates low until the MPC term ends in Q1 2022 as uncertainty over the economic recovery is still elevated.
  • The probability of a rate hike next meeting is very low; however, summer inflation projections and July CPI print will give an update on policy outlook.
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