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ITALY DATA: Ita-coin Nowcast Negative For 9th Month

ITALY DATA
CEEMEAEurozoneData BulletItalyBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange Bullets

 The Bank of Italy’s Ita-coin indicator (nowcast for IT trend growth) remained subdued in January, falling to -0.09 (vs -0.05 prior). The indicator has been below zero for nine consecutive months.

  • The manufacturing sector has dragged on Italian activity over the past two years. The January PMIs saw the manufacturing PMI print in contractionary territory for the 10th month in a row (services just about remained above the neutral 50 level).
  • Flash Q4 GDP was 0.0% Q/Q, a touch below the 0.1% expected. Current Bloomberg consensus is for sequential quarterly growth to be between 0.2-0.3% through 2025. Consumption is expected to drive this recovery, in part due to a resilient labour market and solid real wage growth.
  • However, the December retail sales data (released this morning) pointed to continued consumer caution. Real 3m/3m sales were -0.2% (vs 0.3% prior), and rose just 0.1% Y/Y (vs -0.2% prior). 

 

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 The Bank of Italy’s Ita-coin indicator (nowcast for IT trend growth) remained subdued in January, falling to -0.09 (vs -0.05 prior). The indicator has been below zero for nine consecutive months.

  • The manufacturing sector has dragged on Italian activity over the past two years. The January PMIs saw the manufacturing PMI print in contractionary territory for the 10th month in a row (services just about remained above the neutral 50 level).
  • Flash Q4 GDP was 0.0% Q/Q, a touch below the 0.1% expected. Current Bloomberg consensus is for sequential quarterly growth to be between 0.2-0.3% through 2025. Consumption is expected to drive this recovery, in part due to a resilient labour market and solid real wage growth.
  • However, the December retail sales data (released this morning) pointed to continued consumer caution. Real 3m/3m sales were -0.2% (vs 0.3% prior), and rose just 0.1% Y/Y (vs -0.2% prior). 

 

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