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EGB SUMMARY: Italian BTPs have recovered from earlier negative headlines while
core / semi-core EGBs are pushing higher Thursday morning.
- BTP Jun19 futures have had a rollercoaster day, falling to 128.50 around 0800
UK time, then edging higher to 129.18 before cascading lower again after BBG
headlines pointed to the govermnent downgrading 2019 GDP growth forecast to 0.1%
from 1.0% previously. Last trading up 7 ticks at 128.96.
- Spread of 10-Yr BTP vs Bunds 1.7bps at 255bps, with rest of periphery trading
fairly steady on the day (Spain/Portugal/Greece +/- 0.5bps to Bunds).
- Bunds have benefited from poor factory orders data out this morning as well as
leading German economic institutes cutting 2019 GDP forecast to 0.8% from 1.9%.
- Jun Bund future up 10 ticks at 165.50.
- French OAT spreads have come down sharply (10-Yr down 1.7bps at 37.3bps vs
Bunds) after a good auction of 10-Yr/15-Yr benchmarks (cover of 2.1x and 3.3x,
respectively, up from previous auctions).
- Spain also saw decent demand for 3-Yr Bono earlier, though 10-Yr more subdued.
- ECB March minutes due out at 1230BST/1330CET.