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Italian politics helps drive risk-off sentiment

BONDS
  • Core fixed income is moving higher this morning, although still well below Friday's pre-payrolls levels. Concern over Italian politics are driving moves - Italy's outlook was downgraded to negative by Moody's on Friday and the centre left coalition is already looking in peril after the Azione party pulled out.
  • Bunds are outperforming Treasuries (and gilts outperform Bunds on risk-off fears too). Peripheral spreads are widening, led by BTP-Bund spreads with 10-year BTP yields now back at similar levels to GGBs.
  • There's a couple of fairly quiet days in terms of scheduled events coming up ahead of US CPI on Wednesday with thin data and speaker schedules.
  • TY1 futures are up 0-10 today at 119-22 with 10y UST yields down -2.8bp at 2.802% and 2y yields down -2.0bp at 3.208%.
  • Bund futures are up 0.84 today at 156.78 with 10y Bund yields down -6.4bp at 0.888% and Schatz yields down -4.7bp at 0.409%.
  • BTP futures are down -0.24 today at 127.90 with 10y yields up 0.9bp at 3.026% and 2y yields up 2.7bp at 1.302%.
  • Gilt futures are up 0.70 today at 117.36 with 10y yields down -8.1bp at 1.966% and 2y yields down -9.1bp at 1.854%.
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