ITALY: Blow To PM As Centre-Right Loses Control Of Umbria

PM Giorgia Meloni's centre-right/right coalition suffered a rare electoral setback on 18 Nov with the loss of control of the central region of Umbria. Parties supportive of Meloni also lost ground in the northern region of Emilia-Romagna, although this is less of a blow given the region's long-standing links to Italy's left-wing parties. 

• Since 2019, Donatella Tesei from Deputy PM Matteo Salvini's right-wing populist League has served as Umbrian regional president. Prior to this, all Umbrian presidents since direct elections started in 1995 had hailed from the centre-left/left. Tesei's coalition comprising the League, Meloni's right-wing conservative Brothers of Italy (FdI) and the centre-right Forza Italia (FI)  won 47.3% of the vote compared to 50.2% for the Democratic Party (PD)-dominated centre-left coalition of independent candidate Stefania Proietti, who becomes regional president-elect.
• PD leader Elly Schlein said the results were a "sign of where we can go when we are united and focused on a goal," emphasising the difficulty that the parties of the left have had in recent years effectively building support and working together to oppose the Meloni gov't.
• General election opinion polling shows Meloni's FdI retaining a stable lead over the PD with ~30% support to ~20-25% for the main opposition. With the next general election not due until December 2027 at the latest, the loss of Umbria will cause some consternation within Meloni's camp, but will not yet be seen as an indicator of major political trouble ahead. 

Chart 1. General Election Opinion Polling, % and 6-Poll Moving Average