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POWER: Italy Front-Month Power May Extend Losses Beyond 20 Sep

POWER
CEEMEAEurozoneEnergy BulletsItalyBulletPower BulletsCommodities

Italian front-month power is expected to be weighed on by losses in EU gas prices, once trading, after closing at the lowest since 20 September in Wednesday’s session. The Italian Pun is seen to edge down with forecasts for slightly higher wind output and lower demand. 

  • Italy Base Power APR 25 closed down 2.7% at 107.99 EUR/MWh on 5 March.
  • TTF Gas APR 25 down 0.5% at 41.3 EUR/MWh
  • EUA DEC 25 down 0.5% at 68.42 EUR/MT
  • EU gas prices reversed initial gains to trade lower on the day as the market weighs EC recommended flexibility in reaching gas storage targets but still with the pre winter 90% target.
  • The latest two-week ECMWF weather forecast for Rome suggests mean temperatures will remain above normal until 13 March, after which temperatures will fall below normal until 18 March, when temperatures will rise back above normal.
  • Mean temperatures in Rome are forecast to be stable on the day at 11.6C on Friday, above the seasonal average of 10.8C.
  • The PUN index cleared at €124.27/MWh for Thursday’s delivery, down from €129.56/MWh a day earlier.
  • Wind output in Italy is forecast to rise to 1.84GW during base load on Friday, up from 1.7GW on Thursday according to SpotRenewables.
  • Residual load in Italy is forecast to edge down to 25.33GWh/h on Friday, down from 25.45GWh/h on Thursday according to Reuters.
  • Power demand in Italy is forecast to fall to 32.82GWh on Friday, down from 33.4GWh on Thursday, Reuters data showed.
  • Italy’s hydro balance has been revised up on the day to end at – 3.48TWh on 20 March, compared with -3.59TWh a day earlier according to Bloomberg. 
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Italian front-month power is expected to be weighed on by losses in EU gas prices, once trading, after closing at the lowest since 20 September in Wednesday’s session. The Italian Pun is seen to edge down with forecasts for slightly higher wind output and lower demand. 

  • Italy Base Power APR 25 closed down 2.7% at 107.99 EUR/MWh on 5 March.
  • TTF Gas APR 25 down 0.5% at 41.3 EUR/MWh
  • EUA DEC 25 down 0.5% at 68.42 EUR/MT
  • EU gas prices reversed initial gains to trade lower on the day as the market weighs EC recommended flexibility in reaching gas storage targets but still with the pre winter 90% target.
  • The latest two-week ECMWF weather forecast for Rome suggests mean temperatures will remain above normal until 13 March, after which temperatures will fall below normal until 18 March, when temperatures will rise back above normal.
  • Mean temperatures in Rome are forecast to be stable on the day at 11.6C on Friday, above the seasonal average of 10.8C.
  • The PUN index cleared at €124.27/MWh for Thursday’s delivery, down from €129.56/MWh a day earlier.
  • Wind output in Italy is forecast to rise to 1.84GW during base load on Friday, up from 1.7GW on Thursday according to SpotRenewables.
  • Residual load in Italy is forecast to edge down to 25.33GWh/h on Friday, down from 25.45GWh/h on Thursday according to Reuters.
  • Power demand in Italy is forecast to fall to 32.82GWh on Friday, down from 33.4GWh on Thursday, Reuters data showed.
  • Italy’s hydro balance has been revised up on the day to end at – 3.48TWh on 20 March, compared with -3.59TWh a day earlier according to Bloomberg.