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Itaú Expect Domestic Demand To Soften In H2

MEXICO
  • Responding to today’s Q1 aggregate supply and demand data, Itaú say that they expect domestic demand to soften during H2 as fiscal expenditure slows after the elections amid the transition of administrations. However, they believe there could be some recovery in the manufacturing sector during the rest of the year, supported by the recent weakening of the currency, associated with the uncertainty from the policy direction of the new administration. Itaú’s GDP growth forecast for 2024 stands at 2.3%.
  • Itaú note that aggregate supply rose by 1.5% q/q (sa) in Q1, due to strong real imports, which were up by 4.1% q/q. Domestic demand was also robust, rising by 1.2% q/q on the back of a 1.5% gain in private consumption and 0.8% increase in investment. In their view, private consumption was supported by the bringing forward of social program transfers to Q1, from Q2, due to the election. Exports were flat over the quarter, likely impacted by the strong real exchange rate in Q1.
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