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Itaú Now See Lower Year-End Policy Rates In Both Mexico & Peru

LATAM
  • ITAU CUTS PERU 2023 GDP FORECAST TO 1.4% FROM 1.8% (BBG)
  • Additionally, Itaú now expect the central bank to start cutting its policy rate by 25-bp in each of the meetings of the last quarter of 2023, reaching a level of 7.00% (previously they expected it at 7.75%) given falling inflation, softer activity and well behaved exchange rate.
  • Similar story in Mexico where Itaú now expect the central bank to cut interest rates by 25 bps in each of the last two monetary policy decisions of the year (November and December), reaching a level of 10.75% before year-end (previously at 11.25%).
    • More-benign core inflation readings amid falling 12-month inflation expectations and a well-behaved Mexican peso will likely lead the central bank to cut rates earlier than they had previously expected.
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