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Itaú on Economic Activity and BCCh Decision

CHILE
  • Overall, the gradual correction in economic activity is unfolding. While the downside surprise in the y/y change is a negative surprise, the seasonally adjusted non-mining IMACEC, a better measure to capture the underlying trend of the business cycle, increased in the month consistent with the view of the gradual adjustment of the economy.
    • Itaú expect a GDP contraction of 0.7% this year (2.4% last year), with risks tilted to a smaller contraction.
  • While inflation expectations have gradually edged back to target, activity and inflation have broadly surprised to the upside with respect to the December IPoM.
  • Itaú expect a cautious approach by the BCCh board, with a preference for gathering more information before starting to ease policy. Itaú see the policy rate stable, while indicating a cut in the subsequent meeting is unlikely.
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